Sustainable Manchester Community Grid (MCG) Electricity Supply
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F.A.O. Mr Burnham,
If Greater Manchester were to adopt the completely sustainable, customer-focussed electricity supply system described below rather than maintain the current supplier-focused energy supply system, then Greater Manchester would have:
- a completely sustainable energy supply system for its current electricity requirements, domestic and commercial property space heating and hot water, and road transportation; and
- a resilient supply of renewable electricity at the lowest unsubsidised price (4.3 p/kWh) in the world.
This proposal does not require any public sector funding and it will enable Greater Manchester to transition to a Sustainable Manchester Community Grid Electricity Supply (SMCGES). The benefits of the SMCGES include:
- All commercial and domestic electricity consumers will be charged only 4.3 p/kWh (plus annual indexation of no more than 3% pa) which will make Greater Manchester very attractive as a place to live and work;
- The electricity will be 100% renewable (solar and wind) so all of the energy-consuming activity which is performed in Greater Manchester will be completely sustainable;
- Optimal mix of roof-mounted solar (summer peak generation) and onshore wind systems(winter peak generation) which have complementary generation seasonality will ensure that supply and demand for electricity are matched precisely throughout the year;
- EVs will be used as mobile smart batteries with V2G, V2H and V2B capability to store and supply electricity to the Community Grid as required to balance supply and demand mismatches due to short term fluctuations in generation and / or Time-of-Day electricity demand variability;
- Use of distributed roof-mounted solar PV system generation will maximise electricity supply directly to the supporting domestic and commercial buildings, and minimising Community Grid loading. Consequently, the existing North West Electricity Distribution Network will be unlikely to require any significant capacity upgrades;
- There will be no requirement to rely on natural gas or hydrogen supply from the UK Gas Network if air source heat pumps (for space heating and hot water) are installed in all domestic and commercial properties;
- The assessment of the requirements for loft, cavity wall and solid wall insulation, and secondary glazing will be managed by MCG Electricity System Operator (ESG) to ensure that only the essential improvements in the insulation of the domestic properties are carried out cost effectively in order to enable effective operation of air source heat pumps in these properties;
- With the adoption of 100% EVs the air in Greater Manchester will be clean and there will beno CO2 emissions from petrol /diesel engines; and
- There will be no requirement for electricity generation by coal, gas, nuclear, biomass, biofuel, biogas or CHP (combined heat & power) power stations. Also, this proposal does not require any electricity generation from a range of unproven (in cost effectiveness terms) new technologies (including wave, tidal, nuclear fusion, green hydrogen, and carbon capture & storage combined with non-renewable generation) which are not expected to be more cost effective than solar PV systems and onshore wind turbines unless there are significant future electricity generation cost reductions resulting from, currently , unanticipated technology developments.
Based upon a population-adjusted (UK to Greater Manchester) assessment of electricity demand, the forecast estimated total electricity requirement is 21,500 GWh pa after transitioning to 100% air source heat pumps and 100% EVs comprising:
- 4,250 and 7.850 GWh pa for existing domestic and commercial electricity usage respectively;
- 4,500 GWh pa potential electricity required for 100% Air Source Heat Pumps in domestic and commercial properties for space heating, hot water heating and other processes requiring heat energy; and
- 4,900 GWh pa potential electricity required for 100% EVs.
It is proposed that a Sustainable Community Fund (SCF)will be set up to fully finance (i.e. without public sector funding) all of the required investments in:
- roof-mounted solar PV systems on commercial and domestic properties, onshore wind turbines;
- EVs for 100% cars, vans / LGVs, HGVs, and buses and coaches (ref. Note 2 below);
- air source heat pumps for 100% commercial and domestic properties (ref. Note 3 below); and
- the required improvements in loft, cavity wall and solid wall insulation and in secondary glazing for those domestic properties which are without these forms of insulation and /or double / secondary glazing (ref. Note 4 below).
The SCF will deliver a competitive investment return (forecast pre-tax IRR = 4.9% pa on a total investment of £79.5 billion spread over 10 years duration investment programme) for debt funders and equity investors.
Individual domestic and commercial property owners and road transport vehicle owners will be able to use their own funds / funding arrangements to purchase roof-mounted solar PV systems, air source heat pumps and property insulation improvements on their properties and to purchase their own EVs.
The required additional capacities of installed onshore wind systems, Commercial roof-mounted solar PV systems and Domestic roof-mounted solar PV systems to generate at least 21,500 GWh pa electricity are 6.5GW (i.e. 542 no.12 MW wind turbines to generate 17,100 GWh pa), 4.09 GW (i.e. solar PV systems covering approx. 80% total available commercial roof space to generate 3,120 GWh pa) and 2.29 GW (solar PV systems covering approx. 20% available domestic roof space to generate 1,620 GWh pa) respectively.
The expected annual electricity generation by the proposed additional solar PV system and wind turbine capacities exceed the annual minimum requirement by 340 GWh pa. However, a small surplus (1.6%) in expected annual generation will minimise the risk of any expected time-of-year supply-demand shortfalls.
The total cost of additional capacity of installed onshore wind and solar PV systems for the Community Grid is £13.3 billion in total comprising £8.13, £3.07, and £2.06 billion for the required additional capacities of installed onshore wind systems, Commercial roof-mounted solar PV systems and Domestic roof-mounted solar PV systems respectively.
The total installed cost of 100% Air Source Heat Pumps in domestic and commercial properties is £8.03 billion (comprising £6.76 and £1.27 billion for domestic and commercial properties respectively). The average air source heat pump installed costs are based upon future achievable costs resulting from economies of scale of manufacturing combined with developments in the design of the main components plus benefit of Community purchasing power.
The total installed cost of loft, cavity wall and solid wall insulation, and secondary glazing in domestic properties without loft / cavity wall / solid wall insulation and / or double / secondary glazing is £4.33 billion (comprising £0.15. £0.30, £3.60, and £0.28 billion for installation of loft, cavity wall and solid wall insulation, and secondary glazing respectively.
The total cost of 100% replacement of all cars, LGVs, HGVs, and buses & coaches with EVs is £53.8 billion (comprising £39.3, £7.2, £6.1, and £1.2 billion for Cars, Vans / LGVs, HGVs, and Buses and Coaches respectively. The average EV costs are based upon future achievable costs resulting from economies of scale of manufacturing combined with developments in the design of the main components (including batteries, electric motors, and vehicle control units) plus the benefit of Community purchasing power.
Onshore wind turbines located within and / or adjacent to the outer boundary of Greater Manchester will be able to supply electricity to the MCG at a tariff of 3.3 p/kWh. By comparison, the latest offshore wind farms are supplying electricity as an “input” to the National Grid at a CFD (Contract-for-Difference) price of approximately 5 p/kWh. However, the “output” tariffs to domestic and commercial customers from National Grid electricity suppliers are approximately 30 and 21 p/kWh for domestic and commercial customers. It is anticipated that the residents of Greater Manchester will almost certainly be in favour of low tariff electricity supplied by local onshore wind turbines directly to the MCG for use by domestic and commercial customers in Greater Manchester only.
The air source heat pumps will be able to supply heat energy more cheaply than a natural gas-fired boiler. Currently, natural gas boilers have an average efficiency of approximately 80% and the current natural gas tariff is approximately 7.35 p/kWh, so the effective tariff for the useable heat energy supplied is approximately 9.2 p/kWh. The tariff for the net heat energy (i.e. 2 kWh net heat energy per kWh electricity based upon a COP [Coefficient of Performance] of 3.0) supplied will be 4.3 p/kWh for MCG domestic and commercial customers.
All owners of cars, vans /LGVs, HGVs, and buses and coaches will have a compelling financial reason to lease EVs procured by the Sustainable Community Fund since the annual lease and electricity costs will be less than the current annual cost of petrol / diesel for their current ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles.
Annual saving per vehicle owner (ref. Note 1 below) which will result from exchanging ICE vehicle for EV
= [Average annual cost of petrol / diesel for current on-road ICE vehicle] - [Annual net EV rental charge + Average annual cost of electricity] per vehicle
= £418 pa for EV cars
= £694 pa for EV vans / LGVs
= £12,905 pa for EV HGVs
= £3,674 pa for EV buses & coaches
The MCG will be managed by its own Electricity System Operator (ESO) which will actively monitor:
- current and forecast electricity demand;
- current and forecast electricity supply (primarily based upon daylight intensity and windspeed for solar and wind generation respectively);
- total electricity storage level in MCG-connected EV batteries and maximise storage level at all times;
- whether multiple, consecutive low daylight intensity and low wind speed days are forecast ,and will, if necessary, implement Demand Response actions (e.g. essential driving only, working-from-home);
- make use of Interconnect Agreement with the National Grid to supply electricity in the extremely event that the above actions are insufficient.
The attached “Manchester & UK Community Grid Electricity Supply Model” provides more detailed information and analysis to support this proposal for both Greater Manchester (Sheet 1) and the UK as a whole (Sheet 2, from page 13).
Note 1: Annual saving per vehicle owner (ref. Note 1 below) which will result from exchanging ICE vehicle for EV
= [Average annual cost of petrol / diesel for current on-road ICE vehicle] - [Annual net EV rental charge + Average annual cost of electricity] per vehicle:
Cars: £1,979–[(£2,100-£638) + £99] = £418 pa per EV based upon 200 EV battery charge/discharge cycles per annum to store and supply electricity to the MCG & 8,700 mpa (miles per annum)
Vans / LGVs: £3,371 – [(£2,800-£319) + £196] = £694 pa per EV based upon 75 EV battery charge/discharge cycles per annum to store and supply electricity to the MCG & 12,700 mpa (miles per annum)
HGVs: £34,637 – [(£21,000-£1,382) + £2,114] = £12,905 pa per EV based upon 50 EV battery charge / discharge cycles per annum to store and supply electricity to the MCG & 34,800 mpa miles per annum)
Buses & Coaches: £17,020 – [(£14,000-£957) + £303] = £3,674 pa per EV based upon 50 EV battery charge / discharge cycles per annum to store and supply electricity to the MCG & 17,100 mpa (miles per annum)
Annual net EV rental charge = [Annual gross EV rental charge] – [Average value of electricity supplied by EV battery charge / discharge cycle to MCG per EV via V2H, V2B or V2G within Community Grid area]
Note 2: Average EV costs are based upon future achievable costs resulting from economies of scale of manufacturing combined with developments in the design of the main components (including batteries, electric motors, and vehicle control units) plus the benefit of Community purchasing power.
Note 3: Average air source heat pump installed costs are based upon future achievable costs resulting from economies of scale of manufacturing combined with developments in the design of the main components plus the benefit of Community purchasing power.
Note 4: The installed cost of insulation & secondary glazing years will be recovered in full over 20 years by the SCF from the owners of the domestic properties which require insulation improvement by means of annual installed cost contributions with zero interest payments. If necessary, the annual payments can be lower in the early years and higher in the later years over the 20 years duration of the repayments.
These annual repayments of the installed insulation / secondary glazing cost are likely to be self-financing since the improvement in the insulation performance of the property will result in a reduction in the required supply of heat energy.